000 AGXX40 KNHC 300601 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES NEAR MS DELTA WILL SHIFT S OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO FL BAY AND A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT ESE TO NEAR 26N86W TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY SUN WITH AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND THROUGH MON NIGHT. WEAK TROUGHS WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY OVER THE NE GULF AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TUE EVENING WITH THE HIGH CENTER REDEVELOPING NEAR 26N83W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE CENTRAL LA COASTAL PLAINS TUE NIGHT...WITH EASTERLIES INCREASING TO 10-15 KT/SEAS 2-4 FT OVER THE SW WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS. EASTERLY 20-25 KT TRADES/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL PULSE OVER THE S- CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH E WINDS AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 3- 5 FT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AREA TODAY MOVING UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT SOME ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALONG 70W WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE MONA PASSAGE. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 48W...WILL REACH ALONG 55W TONIGHT AND ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SAT EVENING POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW AT 13N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NE-E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 14N WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BY SUN EVENING...BUT SUGGESTS THAT THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLIES TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS DIMINISH TO 10- 15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO SE FL. A COLD FRONT IS N OF THE AREA ALONG 32-33N RESULTING IN SW 15-20 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-7 FT N OF 28N E OF 75W. A WEAK PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER AND QUICKLY STALL OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N E OF 65W LATE SAT AS THE AFFECTED AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS SHIFTS E OF 55W. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES FORMS NEAR 28N67W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NE FL. EXPECT E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT A NE-E-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 21N FROM SAT THROUGH TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.