000
AGXX40 KNHC 291838
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

BENEVOLENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NE CENTRAL GULF AND VERY DRY SUBSIDING
AIR MASS COVERS BASIN N OF 22N.  LIGHT TO GENTLE NE-E BREEZE 
AND SLIGHT SEAS BELOW 3 FT EXPECTED THROUGH SAT THEN WINDS VEER
MORE S-SW IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES DRIFTING SE THROUGH TUE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
TO BETTER REFLECT TROPICAL WAVES.  

MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS BASIN TODAY WITH SEAS UNLIKELY TO
REACH OVER 8 FT EXCEPT ON BACKSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
ALONG 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG WAVE
AXIS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
VICINITY OF TSTMS.  WAVE MOVE W-NW ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN AND
ADJACENT ATLC TONIGHT REACHING GREATER ANTILLES AND N PORTIONS
OF CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 3. 

SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY SUN
WITH DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON TIMING.  ECMWF AND UKMET IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER TREND THUS THEIR USE. 

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 
GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN ECMWF BLEND TO REFLECT TROPICAL WAVE.

CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES EXTEND RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG 27N INTO
FLORIDA. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE TO S BREEZE COVER BASIN S OF 28N
WITH MODERATE SW FLOW N OF 28N.  SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INDUCED BY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE...PROMPTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS IN ITS VICINITY...BUT OTHERWISE SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FT S OF 28N AND 4-6 FT N OF 28N.

TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 60W MOVE W-NW THROUGH S PORTIONS
OF BASIN FRI THROUGH AND SLOWLY REACH BAHAMAS SAT AND SUN.  
GFS PROVED TOO FAST THUS THE FORECAST FOLLOWS ECMWF AND UKMET
GUIDANCE.  

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.