000 AGXX40 KNHC 290819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 419 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUTT LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SW GULF AND IS RETROGRADING WWD...WITH EPAC TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COMING IN SYNCH...WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION MARCHING WWD WITH AND BEHIND WAVE. 0346 ASCAT PASS SHOWED TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SE WINDS 20-25 KT ON BACK SIDE OF WAVE...AND SOMEWHAT CONFIRMED BY PEMEX BUOY CS2 WHICH REPORTED SE WINDS TO 20 KT RECENTLY. HAVE THUS BUMPED UP THIS AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAKHIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS NE CENTRAL GULF...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOMINATES N OF 25-26N. LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. EPAC MONSOON TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE WINDS TO 15 KT MAY PREVAIL PERIODICALLY...PLUS INFLUENCE OF LATE EVENING TROUGH MOVING W OFF YUCATAN. SHARP UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS ERN U.S. TUE-WED AND WILL DRAG FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO GULF COAST STATES WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LLVL TROUGH MOVING WNW ACROSS CUBA AND BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT HAS PRODUCED STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS NW CARIB THAN BLEW UP NICELY ACROSS THE CAYMANS AREA UNDER UPPER HIGH. THIS WEATHER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NW BUT WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS WLY SHEAR FROM S SIDE OF WEAKENING TUTT LOW ACROSS S FLORIDA. SIMILAR FORCING ACROSS W CARIB TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NW PORTIONS INTO YUCATAN BEHIND EXITING TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS EPAC ALONG 94W. 0344Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH ELY WINDS DEEP IN GULF OF HONDURAS AND HAVE ADJUSTED GFS WINDS AND RELATED SEAS UP THERE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS 20-25 KT OFF OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS LIKELY TO 8 FT THERE. LLVL VORT MOVING WNW ACROSS SE CARIB ALONG 67W ATTM...HAVING EMERGED OUT OF MONSOON TROUGH...WITH SCATTERED MODEST CONVECTION TRAILING. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WWD ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM ALONG ABOUT 60W AND LEAVING BEHIND A VORT E OF BARBADOS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC TODAY AND THIS EVENING...REACHING PUERTO RICO BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUE WNW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND N PORTIONS OF CARIB WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 3. LLVL VORT E OF BARBADOS WILL MOVE WNW AND ACROSS WINDWARDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES WNW ACROSS SE CARIB FRI AND SAT. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS EXPECT FOR FRESH WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...INCLUDING OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED MAX DOWNWIND OF MONA PASSAGE AND S OF BARAHONA PENINSULA. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN MORNING. GFS SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER WITH SPEED OF THIS WAVE...WITH EURO MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE USED GEFS ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIB AFTER 48 HOURS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SW INTO N PORTIONS NEAR 29N69W THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION BEING FUELED BY SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH. BOTH FEATURES TO WEAKEN NEXT 24-26 HOURS AND LIFT OUT OF AREA. LLVL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY WNW THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES SE FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS NEXT 48 HOURS AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME CAPTURED WITHIN DEEP LAYERED WEAKNESS BEING CARVED OUT BY TUTT LOW ACROSS S FLORIDA. MODERATE TRADES 15-20 KT TO PREVAIL S OF 23N JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W ATTM...TO MOVE WNW THROUGH S PORTIONS NEXT 72 HOURS AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 48 HOURS AS MOMEMTUM SLOWS AND STABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT DOMINATES BAHAMAS REGION. SHORTWAVE DIVING SSE OFF MID ATLC COAST TO PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE TO JUST N OF AREA BY LATE FRI WITH SWLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND 20 KT TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND AFFECT N PORTIONS OF AREA STARTING TONIGHT...POSSIBLY 20-25 KT E OF 67W FRI...WHERE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT. WEAK NELY SWELL TO SPILL BACK TOWARD THE SW AND INTO NW WATERS SAT AND SUN. PREFER GEFS AFTER 48 HOURS FOR BOTH WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM SE AND FRONTAL POSITIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.