000
AGXX40 KNHC 281852
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
417 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER OVER SE CONUS MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE
E-NE BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN MOVE INTO
EASTERN GULF VEERING WINDS W OF 92W TO A MORE SE-S DIRECTION.
SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT UNDER SUCH WINDS WITH HIGHEST EXPECTED 2-3 FT.
LIGHT SW FLOW MAY OCCUR N OF 28N AS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
COASTAL AREAS.  ALL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO THUS THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THEN 
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL 
DIFFERENCES.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA STILL RESPONSIBLE FOR 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER GULF OF HONDURAS.  
WINDS MAY GET TEMPORARILY GUSTY WITH ROUGH SEAS IN VICINITY OF
CONVECTION.  OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E BREEZE ACROSS
ENTIRE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  

SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
ALONG 56W MOVE W TONIGHT THEN ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN THU AND N 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES 
RETURN TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI THROUGH SUN. THIRD 
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF REGION APPROACHES 55W LATE SAT
INTO SUN.

CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS REGION TONIGHT THROUGH 
SAT AND BRING RETURN OF FRESH TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS...
AND SEAS 6-8 FT. EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 45W
GATHERING SOME STRENGTH AS IT MOVE W APPROACHING TROPICAL N ATLC
AND NE CARIBBEAN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. GFS WEAKENS IT...THUS
OUR LOW CONFIDENCE.   

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE TO DAY THREE THEN 
LESS CONFIDENCE AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF APPROACHING WAVE.

REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE ALONG 29N DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND 
ALLOW CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE TO EXTEND WESTWARD BRINGING LIGHT TO
GENTLE SE TO S BREEZE THU THROUGH FRI.  VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR
MASS ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG RIDGE WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 
72W.  WEATHER MAY DETERIORATE AS TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
56W MOVES INTO SW CORNER OF BASIN.  MODELS DIFFER IN INTENSITY
AND TIMING THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.  

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.