000
AGXX40 KNHC 271911
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONLY BROKEN HIGH LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FROM REMNANTS OF FERNAND 
WELL INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO NOW AND MOVING AWAY.  MOST OF ITS 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS OVER LAND. HIGH PRES CENTER 1021
MB MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E BREEZE THROUGH FRI SHIFT 
S INTO EASTERN GULF AND BRING LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE BREEZE TO
ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GLOBAL MODEL WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS W CARIBBEAN ALONG ABOUT 83W MOVE
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND WED.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WITH 3-4 FT SEAS W OF 80W EXCEPT
WITHIN 120 NM E OF TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WHERE FRESH SE WINDS AND 
5-6 FT SEAS MAY BE NOTED. 

MODERATE NE-E TRADES PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 4-5 FT.  WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WED NIGHT
THROUGH SUN AS COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO 31N AND SQUEEZES PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS ATLC S OF 25N AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TROPICAL ATLC EASTERN EDGE 
EARLY SAT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT E N OF 13N.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
SYSTEMS MOVING E OUT OF AFRICA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
MAY ALLOW WAVES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH
ZONES IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE S BETWEEN S FLORIDA AND N CUBA
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AFFECT SW
CORNER OF ZONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CYCLONE WEAKEN THROUGH
FRI THEN OPEN TO A TROUGH THEREAFTER. 

CURRENT LIGHT TO GENTLE E TO SE BREEZE DUE TO CENTRAL ATLC HIGH
PRES EXTENDING W OVER BASIN THROUGH LATE THU. WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACH 31N SQUEEZING PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASE NE TO E WINDS
S OF 25N TO A MODERATE SE BREEZE THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.