000 AGXX40 KNHC 270756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS REMNANTS OF FERNAND WELL INLAND NOW...MOVING NW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO WITH SSE LLVL FLOW PRODUCING BANDS OF DEEP CNVTN ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND COASTAL WATERS AND NEARING SRN TIP OF TEXAS. ALL THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT WWD TODAY AS STRONG TUTT LOW OVER S FLORIDA AND SE GULF DIGS SLIGHTLY S AND BECOME STATIONARY...AND NE FLOW ALONG TO THE W AND NW OF LOW SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF N HALF OF BASIN PRODUCING UPPER CONVERGENCE. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS FAR W AND SW PORTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LLVL WEAKNESS LIKELY TO BE CARVED OUT UNDERNEATH TUTT LOW AND COULD BE FOCUS OF CONTINUED WEATHER ALONG AND TO THE E AND AFFET THE STRAITS OF FL. ALSO...BROAD TROFFING DEVELOPING ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS WILL ALSO YIELD AREA OF MODEST CNVTN...MAINLY N AND E FLANKS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS W CARIBBEAN ALONG ABOUT 82W ATTM WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD OF WAVE AND SPREADING INTO NW CARIB AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ZONE OF MODEST TRADES 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT OCCURRING BETWEEN 14N-17N WILL ACCOMPANY WAVE INLAND TODAY AND THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADES TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH FRESHENING TRADES RETURNING TO CENTRAL CARIB WED THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDS SW AND WEAKLY TO BAHAMAS UNDERNEATH NW ATLC TUTT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. PEAK WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS AROUND 7 FT FCST TO SET UP ALONG 70W-74W PER LATEST GFS...A BIT EAST OF TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF CARIB LLVL JET MAX. LATEST TROPICAL WAVES HAVE DRAGGED MONSOON TROF A BIT BEYOND 50W...WITH TRAJECTORY OF WAVE VORTICES ALONG ABOUT 13N ACROSS THE ATLC MDR. THIS POSITIONING MAX TRADES 15-20 KT GENERALLY 15N-20N...NOT ATYPICAL FOR LATE AUG. NEXT WAVE ALONG 45W EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED EVENING AND ACROSS E CARIB THU AND FRI. MODEST WIND SURGE AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 6-7 FT EXPECTED N OF 16N DURING THIS PASSAGE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS E AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MDR BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND MAY ALLOW WAVES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY APPROACH CARIB BY WEEKEND. GFS A BIT FASTER THAN EUROPEAN MODELS WITH NEXT SERIES OF WAVES...AND HAVE USED MEAN POSITIONS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS E COAST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS S FLORIDA AND SE GULF PENINSULA AND HAS NUDGED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BIT S INTO S CENTRAL FL MEANDERING NE TO NEAR BERMUDA. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW HALF OF BAHAMAS AND S HALF OF FL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING AS TUTT LOW GOES STATIONARY AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY 48 HOURS. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD WEAKLY SW TO BAHAMAS BY WED UNDERNEATH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFF MID ATLC STATES. WEAKNESS TO CONTINUE UNDERNEATH TUTT LOW THROUGH AT LEAST WED AND WILL MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR MODEST CNVTN. WEAK SFC TROUGH NEAR 70W WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD WITH BEST CONVERGENCE AND WEATHER BEHIND IT AND WILL SHIFT ACROSS SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH WED. MODERATE E TO ESE TRADES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AT 15-20 KT TO PRODUCE SEAS 4-6 FT THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND ENTRANCE TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR BETTER ORGANIZED WAVES TO APPROACH FROM THE E OVER THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.