000 AGXX40 KNHC 260803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INVOF OF STALLED AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE N COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS BOUNDARY IS FCST TO DRIFT SSE. MEANWHILE...T.S. FERNAND HAS FINALLY MOVED INLAND...AFTER TAKING A SHORT LIVE NW JOG ALONG THE COAST JUST N OF VERACRUZ BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ABATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY S OF CABO ROJO MEXICO...BUT WITH BROAD 20-25 KT WIND FIELD AND SEAS 6-7 FT SPREADING ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS AND INTO EXTREME S TEXAS WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL WIND SURGE HAS MOVED WELL OUT AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIB...AND IS INDUCING LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE E OF ...AND LIGHTING UP MOST OF SW GULF WITH DEEP CNVTN. THIS WIND SURGE AND SAL BEHIND IT...WILL MOVE NW AND FORCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION W AND NW ACROSS MUCH OF THE W GULF AND INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP S TEXAS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO BUMP UP WEATHER CONSIDERABLY IN MORNING PACKAGE. AS ALL THIS WEATHER SHIFTS WWD AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS S...WEAK HIGH TO SETTLE ACROSS ARK TUE AND WED AND PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY FLOW ACROSS BASIN FOR GRADUALLY CALMING. EXPECT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BY 72 HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS TROPICAL WAVE LOOKS TO BE ALONG ABOUT 73W/74W THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF WAVE WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS OCCURRING...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND MAX IS OCCURRING...MAINLY 15-17N. SAL IS TO THE W AND NW WITH MID LVL WIND SURGE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVING INTO GULF CONTINUING TO YIELD ELY WINDS 20-25 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT. A SECONDARY PORTION OF WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIB ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE WWD TODAY THROUGH TUE...WITH ACTIVE WX ALONG AND BEHIND IT. WINDS AND SEAS TO BEGIN DIMINISHING ACROSS THE BASIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WEAK ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS NE INERN ATLC AND WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIB AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE SHIFT W TO NEAR 80W AND BEYOND TONIGHT AND TUE. THIS WILL LEAVE A LLVL WEAKNESS ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 10-12N ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH TO ABOUT 58W BY TUE...CARVED OUT BY RECENT LARGE WAVE COMPLEX...AND COUPLED WITH RETREATING ATLC RIDGE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH CARIB LLVL JET DISPLACED N BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE WED AFTERNOON...AND IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WIND MAX AROUND 20 KT TO ENTER REGION N OF 18N...AND SEAS 6-7 FT WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS E COAST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S ACROSS NW PORTIONS WITH VORT CENTER IN BASE ACTING TO INDUCE LIFT ACROSS BASE...AND NUDGE FRONTAL ZONE SSE. WNW UPPER JET ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DOWNSTREAM DIVERGENCE ACTING TO ENHANCE CNVTN ALONG BOUNDARY ATTM AND ACTIVE WEATHER THUS EXPECTED TO PUSH S AND SE ACROSS THE REST OF FL PENINSULA TODAY AND ACROSS NW HALF OF BAHAMAS. SECONDARY WAVE ENERGY MOVING W ACROSS NE CARIB TODAY WILL CONTINUE W AND AFFECT HISPANIOLA AND SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. NELY FLOW 15-20 KT N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL YIELDING BUILDING SEAS TO 6 FT IN NE WIND SWELL PER BUOY 41012...AND WILL FILL IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE BEGINNING DIMINISHING TREND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TRADES ACROSS S PORTIONS S OF 23N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.