000 AGXX40 KNHC 251828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOWLY SINKING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME NE GULF WATERS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW GULF...YIELDING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE N OF 24N. THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY GENERATED BY E-SE FLOW NEAR 20 KT PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. BUOY OBS REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH WW3 DATA IN OVERALL GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NE WATERS AND MAINTAIN ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY...WITH A ZONE OF ESE WINDS 15-20 KT TO THE S OF IT EXTENDING FROM NE PORTIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS 4-5 FT. SECONDARY BOUNDARY TO MOVE S INTO N FLORIDA ATLC WATERS WITH RIDGING INDUCING NE TO E FLOW ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS MON...THEN GRADIENT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TUE AS RIDGE SHIFTS E IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING TO EASTERN SEABOARD. A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION WITH A NORTHERN EXTENT OF ENERGY FOCUSED AROUND A 1009 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING W-NW TOWARDS THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO S OF 23N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF LOW AS IT REMAINS IN THE RELATIVE SHORT TERM. ONCE INTERACTION WITH LAND OCCURS THE LOW DISSIPATES INTO SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. EXPECT AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NE SEMICIRCLES IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION...WITH BROAD 20 KT WIND FIELD TO PRODUCE SEAS TO 10 FT...POSSIBLY TO 11 FT BEFORE ENTERING COAST MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 68/69W. FRESH SELY FLOW BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ALONG 95W YIELDING WINDS TO 25 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS AS FORECAST BY GFS WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES DEPICTING THIS AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA RUNNING 5-7 FT PER EARLIER ALTIMETER AND BUOY OBS AND WILL SHIFT W WITH WAVE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE ABATING AS ATLC RIDGE IS NUDGED EASTWARD BY EAST COAST TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. WAVE WILL CONTINUE W AND INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 00Z TUE WITH 20 KT WIND FIELD REMAINING GENERALLY N OF 14N AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS FCST TO REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE DROPPING TO 10-15 KT NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADIENT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN REALLY DROPS OFF BY TUE FOR MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...AND POTENTIALLY NO 8 FT SEAS WITHIN THE BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IS EXPECTED LATE WED...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE EURO MODELS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SSE INTO NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 29N E OF 75W AND N OF 24N W OF 75W. SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING S INTO THE AREA WILL FOCUS BEST LIFT E OF 75W AS EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS E AND SE NEXT 24 HOURS. STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR RETROGRADING TUTT LOW OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE CURRENTLY AIDING ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HISPANIOLA...AND THE ADJACENT NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. NELY FLOW AROUND 25 KT DEPICTED BY EARLIER ASCAT PASS N OF FRONT OFF COAST AND INTO OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS AND WILL GENERATE MODERATE PERIOD WIND SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT NW PORTIONS NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH PEAK SEAS 6-8 FT MOVING INTO NE FLORIDA COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE... WEAK RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY SINKS ALONG FAR NW PORTIONS TONIGHT AND MON...AND BOTH BOUNDARIES WEAKEN QUICKLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES AROUND 15 KT S OF 22N AND LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING/HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.