000
AGXX40 KNHC 241800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE N-CENTRAL GULF IS DRIFTING SLOWLY W WITH 
ACTIVE CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING SLOWLY W CONTINUES TO INTERACT FAVORABLY 
WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N93W. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO 
MOVE INTO MEXICO BY SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS FORECASTING 20-25 KT 
E-SE WINDS BEHIND WAVE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. GFS AND 
UKMET SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG S MEXICAN COAST AND DEVELOP 
IT INTO A CLOSED LOW...WHICH FURTHER ENHANCES WINDS IN SW GULF. 
SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FT BY SUN MORNING AND COULD PEAK NEAR 9 FT BY 
MON MORNING. RIDGING BEHIND EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT FORECAST TO 
SINK INTO SW N ATLC WATERS NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FRESHEN E-NE WINDS 
IN NE GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUILDING SEAS TO 4-5 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

MODEST AREA OF FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WITH WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 
30 KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING 8-10 FT. MODERATE E-NE TRADES 
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS E CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE 
CROSSING WINDWARD ISLANDS. AS A RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
SINKING TOWARD N FLORIDA AND THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER WEST...THE 
ZONE OF FRESH TRADES IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM 70W TO 80W THEN 
ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SLOWLY CONTRACT 
AND WEAKEN MON THROUGH WED. MODELS SUGGEST 20 KT FLOW WILL BE  
CONFINED TO S OF 13N OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BY WED. 
MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 
15N THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LOWER LEVEL JET N OF THE WAVE TO 
PRODUCE E-NE TRADES TO 20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT THROUGH MON. SURGE 
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WAVE OFF AFRICA MAY REACH THE AREA FRI-SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS 

WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N70W WITH RIDGE ALONG 29N TO N FLORIDA 
PRODUCING LIGHT E-SE WINDS EXCEPT 15 KT TRADES S OF 22N. RIDGE 
WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH SUN AS EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT SINKS 
S INTO NW PART SUN MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND 
BOUNDARY ALONG GA COASTAL WATERS SUN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OFF N 
FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. DYING 
STATIONARY FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL MON WITH 
SEAS 5-7 FT SPREADING INTO NW PORTIONS AND FL COASTAL WATERS SUN 
NIGHT AND MON. RIDGE BEHIND FRONT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY MON NIGHT 
AND TUE AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH 
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OVERALL PATTERN LIKELY THROUGH THU.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.