000 AGXX40 KNHC 240809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 409 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND IS DRIFTING SLOWLY W-NW...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE E. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ATTM...ALONG ABOUT 90W...AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH MID/UPPER LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY W ALONG 91.5W. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO NE WINDS W OF 90W...AND SE WINDS 10-15 KT BETWEEN 83W AND 90W...WITH SOME NON RAIN FLAGGED WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS...LIKELY INFLOW TO ACTIVE CONVECTION THERE. BUOY OBS SHOWING SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE E OF 90W AND COULD POSSIBLY BE NEAR 5 FT OFFSHORE OF MOUTH OF MS IN ENHANCED SE FLOW. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO WNW NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW PORTIONS OF BASIN...WITH MODELS FORECASTING 20-25 KT OF E-SE FLOW TO SPREAD BEHIND WAVE OFF YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING AS WAVE MOVES INLAND ACROSS LOWER MEXICAN COAST. GFS AND UKMET PICK UP ON TYPICAL COASTAL TROFFING ALONG S MEXICAN COAST AND DEVELOP ELONGATED LOW...AIDING IN ENHANCED WINDS. SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FT BETWEEN NW COAST OF YUCATAN AND 95W BY EARLY SUN MORNING AND SHIFT NW INTO MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS S OF 25N...AND COULD PEAK NEAR 9 FT MON MORNING. EARLY SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SINK INTO SW N ATLC WATERS AND N FLORIDA NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND ALLOW RIDGING BEHIND IT TO FRESHEN FLOW ACROSS NE GULF LATE SUN THROUGH MON AND RAISE SEAS THERE TO 4-5 FT POSSIBLY PEAKING AT 6 FT. MODELS ALSO MAINTAINING CONDITIONS ALOFT W OF 90W AND CONTINUED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVERGENCE BEHIND WAVE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION EWD TO 80W. RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWED E-SE WINDS 15-20 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS AND ELY FLOW 15-25 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS N OF 18N. MEANWHILE MODEST AREA OF 20 KT TRADES PREVAILED ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH 0458 OSCAT PASS...AND 25 KT ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 30 KT REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT. MODERATE NE TO ENE TRADES OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS E CARIB AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 60W ATTM. VERY LARGE AREA OF SAL ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE AND ALREADY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL CARIB. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS TOWARD N FLORIDA WITH RIDGE BEHIND IT...AND TWO WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE W TODAY...ZONE OF FRESH TRADES 20-25 KT EXPECTED TO EXPEND FROM NEAR 70W TO 80W AND THEN ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH MON. MODELS SUGGESTING TRADES TO REALLY DROP OFF LATE MON THROUGH WED WITH 20 KT FLOW CONFINED TO S OF 13N OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. SAL ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND WAVE TO DOMINATE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MID WEEK. MODEST TRADES GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 15N NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LLVL JET N OF THE WAVE TO PRODUCE E-NE TRADES 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT THROUGH MON. SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WAVE OFF AFRICA TO REACH THE AREA FRI-SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS COLLAPSING HIGH NEAR 28N70W WITH WEAKENING RIDGE W TO N FLORIDA YIELDING LIGHT E TO SE WINDS EXCEPT 15 KT TRADES S OF 22N BECOMING ESE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RIDGE TO WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH SUN AS FRONTAL TROUGH SINKS S INTO NW PORTIONS SUN MORNING WITH GFS FORECAST NE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND BOUNDARY ALONG SC AND GA COASTAL WATERS SUN BEFORE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUN EVENING. DYING BOUNDARY TO MAKE TO TO CAPE CANAVERAL BY MONDAY WITH SEAS 5-7 FT SPREADING INTO NW PORTIONS AND FL COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO WEAKEN QUICKLY LATE MON AND TUE AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.