000 AGXX40 KNHC 230806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 406 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 3 BUT PREFER GFS ACROSS N AND NE GULF. WEAK HIGH PRES PREVAILS ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE ATLC RIDGE WELL NE OF THE AREA EXTENDS SW TO OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. WEAK TROUGH ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY S TO 26N SHIFTING SLOWLY W..AND JUST AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL AND BRUSHING SE PORTIONS. E TO ESE TRADES BUILDING IN ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH POCKETS OF 15-20 KT AS INFLOW INTO ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND E OF THESE FEATURES. COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN CURRENTLY WITH REMNANTS OF TUTT SNAKING IN ACROSS THE STRAITS TO TUTT LOW N OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RIDGING ELSEWHERE ON EITHER SIDE. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT TODAY E OF 90W AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. BOTH TROUGH AND WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE W WITH TROUGH ALONG TEXAS COAST BY 12Z SAT AND WAVE ACROSS YUCATAN THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY W THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESE TO SE WINDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE E BEHIND BOTH OF THESE FEATURES AND PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXCEPT 15-20 KT OFF YUCATAN AND THEN NEAR 20 KT W OF THE PENINSULA WITH EXITING EVENING CONVECTION EACH EVENING BEGINNING SAT. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHTO SINK S ACROSS N FLORIDA WATERS SUN THROUGH MON WITH RIDGE OFF MID ATLC COAST AND BRING RETURN TO MORE ELY FLOW E AND SE PORTIONS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT BEHIND OR TO THE E OF TROUGH AND WAVE TODAY THROUGH SUN...AND 3 FT OR LESS TO W OF THESE FEATURES. HAVE TRIED TO INCREASE THE WEATHER NEXT 24 HOURS IN GRIDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR WEST AND NW CARIBBEAN AND TRIGGERING VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION THERE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIN HAVE INTERACTED WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS PUERTO RICO PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LLVL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH UPPER TROUGH THERE AGAIN TODAY WITH TROUGH SHIFTING W LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...BROAD SCALE LIFT ACROSS TROPICAL EPAC EXTENDING E TO ABOUT 80W WILL YIELD GENERAL SINKING MOTION AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS REMAINDER OF CARIB E OF 80W FOR STABLE CONDITIONS. MODEST WIND SURGE WITH AND BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE TO BUILD ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT TO INCREASE ESE WINDS TO 20 KT WITH ISOLATED AREAS TO 25 KT...AND SEAS 6-8 FT TONIGHT TROUGH SUN NIGHT. FRESH TRADES ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS N TO 15N PER RECENT SCAT PASSES...WITH OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED WINDS AROUND 20 KT OFF BARAHONA PENINSULA OF DR...WITH BROAD ZONE OF 7-9 FT SEAS EXPECTED ATTM BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. SINKING RIDGE ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND BEHIND FRONTAL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT FOR FRESH TRADES 20-25 TO BUILD BEHIND EXITING TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N AND W OF 69W THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE ABATING SUN NIGHT-MON. GFS SUGGESTING NOCTURNAL MAX TO 30 KT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA SAT NIGHT. THIS TO KEEP SEAS IN 7-9 FT RANGE THROUGH THIS ZONE WITH PEAK AROUND 10 FT OFF COLOMBIA EARLY SUN. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH WINDWARDS TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SE CARIB SAT BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE ZONE OF SAL AND WILL ENCOUNTER STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT YIELDING LIMITED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TRADES N OF THIS LARGE WAVE WILL FRESHEN ACROSS E CARIB WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-6 FT SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 3. WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED ALONG N BORDER NEAR 31N74W YIELDING MODERATE TRADES S OF 22N AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH BAHAMAS AND INTO FLORIDA...EXCEPT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS THE ATLC FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY VERY STABLE...WITH LARGE ZONE OF SAL SPREAD ACROSS N FLANKS OF HUGE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS STRUNG OUT NE TO SW BETWEEN 35W AND 50W THIS PAST WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO PERSISTS ACROSS ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH AN LONG NE FETCH ACROSS THE MDR TO YIELD SEAS 6-7 FT FAR E WATERS BY SUN. NEXT WAVE MOVING OFF AFRICA ATTM. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.