000 AGXX40 KNHC 221034 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT THU AUG 22 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND MWW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST NE OF THE GULF. THE PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. LATEST BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS DEPICT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0252 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS. LATEST AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF LOW SEAS...IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 2-4 FT IN THE FAR NE GULF PER BUOY 42036 AT 29N84W...AND 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE ONLY NEW FEATURE TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SE GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF SAT AS IT WEAKENS JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS WAVE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS TO WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED FROM THIS WAVE. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST NE OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT S SAT...AND REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE THROUGH MON ALLOWING FOR A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND LOW SEA STATE THROUGHOUT. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND MWW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT 0600 UTC A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W FROM 13N TO 22N MOVING W AT 13 KT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN...IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL N-E TRADES IN THE FRESH CATEGORY IN SPEEDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0248 UTC LAST NIGHT DEPICTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS. BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NE TO E WINDS 25 KT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 FT. ELSEWHERE NE TO E TRADES ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE. A POCKET OF LIGHT TO GENTLE NE WINDS IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF ZONE 037. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE RECORDING SEAS OF 4-6 FT RANGE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SECTIONS. HIGHER SEAS OF 7-10 FT ARE CONFINED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN PORTION...AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE STRONGEST TRADES (FRESH CATEGORY) ARE OCCURRING. A SMALL AREA OF 2-4 FT SEAS IS IN THE SE PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO W OF ABOUT 79W N OF 16N.NE-E WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC ARE SLIGHTER LOWER THAN 24 HOURS...IN THE 4-5 FT EXCEPT 3-4 FT S OF 13N AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM FAR NW CUBA TO JUST E OF NE HONDURAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THE WAVE WILL BE MOVE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. BEHIND THE WAVE...THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE SEA INCLUDING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SUN AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA REMAINS DEEPER THAN TYPICALLY OBSERVED. WITH THESE WINDS SEAS WILL BE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE AFTER TONIGHT IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE SEAS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THOSE ZONES SAT AND SAT EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH LITTLE IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND MWW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN PART OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY ALONG 32N. LATEST AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS REVEAL MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS S OF 24N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. THE 0252 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS ALSO DID RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA. ELSEWHERE THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS...ASCAT AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE LIGHTER E-SE WINDS IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE CATEGORY. THE WINDS OF GENTLE CATEGORY ARE NOTED N OF 29N. THE BUOYS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE NOTING SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT S OF 26N...EXCEPT SEAS TO 6-7 FT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WHERE THE E MODERATE TO FRESH ARE OCCURRING. N OF 26N SEAS ARE LOWER...IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. IN THE FAR SW PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE UNDER A STEADY E FETCH OF 15 KT TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT WINDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT...A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...AND HISPANIOLA WITH E-SE 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO 6 FT THEREAFTER INTO MON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...THE RIDGE ALONG 32N IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SE FRI WHILE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES SWD TO THE FAR NW PORTION SUN BEFORE IT WEAKENS AS IT BECOMES STATIOANRY ON MON NEAR 30N. HIGH PRES WILL SURGE SWD BEHIND IT BRINGING INCREASING NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THE FAR NW CORNER ON MON WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 6 FT. A RATHER LIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS LOW SEAS ...EXCEPT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AS MENTIONED EARLIER. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.