000
AGXX40 KNHC 211825
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND 
MWW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING N OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. THERE IS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS AS WELL AS SHIP AND BUOY DATA
DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SEAS IN
THE 1-3 FT RANGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF WATERS REACHING
MEXICO LATE THU. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND 
MWW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY
DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND 2-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU
THROUGH FRI BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA BY SAT. WITH A DEEPER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA PREVAILING...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND 
MWW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING S OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WITH A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILING N OF THE AREA ROUGHLY
ALONG 32N. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP
AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SW PART
OF THE AREA...AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR 4-7 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND 2-4 FT
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE SW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU EVENING.
A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATION TO WINDS AND SEAS.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.