000 AGXX40 KNHC 180751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST AND PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 27N91W TO NEAR 18N92W...WITH THROUGH MOVING INLAND THE TEXAS COAST MON EVENING. FOR GRIDS BLENDED PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH 50/50 GFS/ECMWF. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN AND N CENTRAL SECTIONS OF GULF THROUGH TUE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF...THAT AS OF 06 UTC IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 26N93W TO INLAND THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N94W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO THE NW AND N OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N93W...AND TO INLAND NE MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RATHER GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXCEPT SE-S 20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR N CENTRAL PORTION AS ALSO NOTED IN THE 0234 UTC ASCAT PASS...AND GENTLE E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOWS SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE...EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN THE N CENTRAL PORTION AND 2-3 FT IN THE SW PART. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH FORECAST THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE WESTWARD TODAY THROUGH MON BEFORE MOVING INLAND SE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO MON NIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT INTO THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0230 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE EARLIER ONGOING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT. SEAS THERE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5-6 FT. THE 0232 UTC ASCAT PICKED UP ON E 20 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHTER TRADES EXIST WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT IN THE SE PART OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND FOR 5-7 FT SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 77W S OF 21N IS MOVING W AT 101-5 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 79W BY EARLY TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE AT THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING MON. TRADES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IN ITS WAKE...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 60.5W AND ALSO MOVING W AT 10-15 KT ENTERS THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON...AND THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. THE WABE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU...BUT LIKE THE FIRST WAVE IT SHOULD ALSO BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER W ACROSS THAT PART OF THE SEA. EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 8 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 32N BY WED. THE RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING AN E-SE WIND FLOW OF MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE GENTLE SE-S WINDS ARE NOTED. THE BUOYS THROUGHOUT ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE NW PORTION AND 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET OF HIGHER 5-8 FT SEAS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND 67W WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ALLOWING FOR E WINDS THERE OF 20-25 KT. THIS TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS FOUND BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W...AND THE RIDGE TO ITS N. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS N TO NEAR 21N. THIS WAVE...LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED ONE...WILL ALSO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THU. IT WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY SURGE OF INCREASED E WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT...AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.