000 AGXX40 KNHC 170904 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013 CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: EUROPEAN MODEL USED FOR WEST HALF OF THE GULF WHERE TROUGH/LOW PRES ARE LOCATED. 10M WINDS CAPPED AT 20-25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW/TROUGH FEATURE...WITH TWEAKS TO WINDS AND SEAS AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. RELATIVELY LOW TO AVERGAE CONFIDENCE THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LOW/TROUGH FEATURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE PERSISTENT WEAK LOW PRES FEATURE (AL92) WITH A PRES OF 1010 MB (AL92) IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW GULF ABOUT 120 MILES WNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO OR NEAR 21N92.5W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NNE TO NEAR 27N90W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE 0254 UTC ASCAT PASS CLEARLY CAPTURED THE WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AS WELL THE NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE TROUGH. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE WINDS WERE RATHER LIGHT WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH. THIS FORECAST WILL REFLECT A LOWER TREND WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS AS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS ADVERTISED IN 12-24 HOURS IN REFERENCE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/TROUGH FEATURE. MODELS...FOR THE MOST PART...ARE LEANING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN FORECAST TRACK OF AL92 TOWARDS THE GENERAL AREA OF NE MEXICO/FAR S TEXAS THROUGH LATE MON. WILL FORECAST THE LOW TO REACH A POSITION NEAR 22N94W BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A PRES OF 1008 MB...THEN TO NEAR 22N95W BY EARLY SUN...TO NEAR 22.5N96W BY SUN EVENING...AND INLAND FAR NE MEXICO OR FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE MON NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WNW OR NW ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF. WILL TRIM DOWN SEAS IN THE SW GULF NEAR THE LOW FROM WHAT WAS FORECASTED 12-24 HOURS TO 6-9 FT...PRIMARILY WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM N AND NE OF THE LOW. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD FROM ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ONCE THE LOW/TROUGH MOVES INLAND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE NE TO E 20-25 KT TRADES LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. THESE TRADES ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0252 UTC REVEALED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS AREA OF TRADES. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TRADES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT. ELSEWHERE...LIGHTER TRADES CAN BE FOUND WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE E-SE WINDS OF 20-2 KT ARE OCCURRING WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-8 FT. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 2-3 FT IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE CARIBBEAN IN THE LEE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE BEEN PROLONGED DUE TO LONGER LASTING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 71W. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX SOME THROUGH MON AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 56W ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON SUN. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 06 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 31N TODAY AND SUN...AND TO N OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE...EXPECT MAINLY A MODERATE E-SE WIND FLOW WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE S OF 22N WHERE WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY 20- 25 KT WITH SEAS TO NEAR 7 OR 8 FT AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THOSE WATERS. LATEST SHIP OBSERVATIONS THERE ARE REPORTING SUCH CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WAVE...IS CURRENTLY ALONG 70W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL FOLLOW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN...AND SWEEPING S OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING NEAR 36W THIS MORNING...AND NEAR 40W BY EARLY SUN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC...FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.