000 AGXX40 KNHC 161812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: EUROPEAN MODEL USED FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACROSS THE SW PART WITH 10-M WINDS CAPPED AT 20-25 KT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. LOW CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 91W S OF 25N WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRES ON THE WAVE NEAR 21N91W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 21N93W EARLY SAT MORNING...NEAR 22N95W EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN NEAR 23N95W BY EARLY MON MORNING. THE LOW WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. FOR NOW... INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT...TRACK...AND ULTIMATE IMPACTS OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF WATERS FRI THROUGH SUN. OFFICIAL WINDS HAVE CAPPED AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 9 FT. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE NE TO E 20-25 KT TRADES LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. THESE TRADES ARE THE RESULT OF HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA INTO THE CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 11 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 63W MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE AT THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN. IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...NE WINDS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE E. TRADES RESPOND BY WEAKENING FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 31N SAT AND SUN...AND TO N OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE...EXPECT MAINLY A MODERATE E-SE WIND FLOW WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE S OF 22N WHERE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO NEAR 7 FT AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W ACROSS THOSE WATERS. THE FIRST WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 63W S OF 22N...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL FOLLOW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN...AND SWEEPING S OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. ERIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 16/1500 UTC. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING NEAR 36W BY EARLY SAT AND NEAR 40W BY EARLY SUN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC...FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.