000 AGXX40 KNHC 151835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST POSITIONS USED FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRES WITH 10-M WINDS CAPPED AT 25-30 KT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. LOW CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N87W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF QUINTANA ROO MEXICO NEAR 19N88W. THE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20.5N91W EARLY FRI MORNING AND NEAR 22.5N92.5W EARLY SAT MORNING. THEN...THE LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH MON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT...TRACK...AND ULTIMATE IMPACTS OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI THROUGH SUN. OFFICIAL WINDS HAVE CAPPED AT 25-30 KT WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 11 FT-12 FT. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 25N87W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF QUINTANA ROO MEXICO NEAR 19N88W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD AND AWAY FROM THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PRESENCE OF 30 KT TRADES OFF COLOMBIA WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE STRONG WIND FLOW IS THE RESULT OF HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA INTO THE CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 11 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. WINDS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OFF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND PARTICULARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND MID LATITUDE ERODE THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH FURTHER. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W ALONG ROUGHLY 28N TO NE FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE S TO SW FLOW TO 15 KT OVER AMZ111 OFF NE FLORIDA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. IN ADDITION TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED S OF 22N NEAR THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE NOTED W OF 65W...WITH 4 TO 6 FT IN NE AND E SWELL ACROSS AMZ127 NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT N THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OFF NE FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N...MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 25N INTO SAT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE SAT/EARLY SUN...AND SWEEPING S OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ERIN AT 15/1500 UTC. ERIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST- NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING 35W AS A TROPICAL STORM BY SAT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.