000 AGXX40 KNHC 140748 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PERSISTENCE THROUGH EARLY THU THEN ECMWF WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MODIFIED WNA FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. NWPS NOT AVAILABLE. RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA...THROUGH A 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N92W THEN THROUGH THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS MAINTAINING WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 25N. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS ARE EASTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KT...WITH UP TO 20 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS ARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND A WEAK TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THU WITH LITTLE CHANGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF FROM THERE. THE GFS IS MOVING A LOW PRES ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THAT POINT IN TIME...SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE. FROM FRI THROUGH SUN...THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND MOVES IT N TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE LOW PRES WILL ARRIVE OVER THE YUCATAN JUST AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS DIFFERS FROM THE ECMWF AND UKMET BY SHOWING THE LOW DEEPENING AND LIFTING NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND UKMET BOTH INDICATE AN OPEN WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS SW GULF. THE DETERMINISTIC GRIDDED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF...BUT WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE OPEN WAVE AND THE ATLC RIDGE. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEVELOPED THIS FEATURE WILL BE WHEN IT ENTERS THE GULF...AND EXACTLY HOW IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST IS A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE WNA TO FIT THE ECMWF PATTERN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WNA FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. NWPS NOT AVAILABLE. A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND EASTERN HONDURAS IS MOVING W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTERED IS ANALYZED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 16N83W. THE WAVE AND LOW PRES ARE IN AN AREA WITH FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER JAMAICA. THE WAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRES...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACROSS BELIZE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS MIGRATED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AS RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE MORE DOMINANT WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL ALLOW FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGER FLOW WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD TO SAT AND SUN...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES IT FROM THE NORTH...AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATES FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WAVE HEIGHTS FROM WNA. NWPS NOT AVAILABLE. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT SW FLOW OVER AMZ111 OFF NE FLORIDA...BETWEEN A 1020 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N72W...AND A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PERSISTS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 22N. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THE 15 TO 20 KT SW WINDS OFF NE FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND WEAKENS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO 30N THROUGH THU...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.