000
AGXX40 KNHC 120800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
WED...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF NE FLORIDA WESTWARD ALONG 30N TO THE NW GULF. A WEAK TROUGH IS
STALLED ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN THE SW GULF. IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW PREVAILS. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFT S SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND STALLING THROUGH MID WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT TIME. THE OUTLOOK
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE GFS ALONG
WITH THE CMC REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A LOW PRES SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY
LATE THU. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE WARMER LOOP
CURRENT AS IT SHIFTS N. A LOW PRES AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT BRING ONLY AN OPEN TROUGH
INTO THE GULF BY LATE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS ATTM...KEEPING A WEAK LOW ALONG A TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL GULF THU AND FRI. WINDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 25 KT ON
THE NE AND E SIDE OF THE LOW/TROUGH...FACING THE ATLC RIDGE. WITH
THAT...SEAS MAY BUILD TO 9 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS E-W ALONG ROUGHLY 22N...WITH THE
MAIN CENTER OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND A SECONDARY CENTER OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH S OF HISPANIOLA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SHIFT W INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND RIDGING N OF THE AREA. SEAS AT BUOY 42059 NEAR 15N67W ARE UP
TO 10 FT. THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE TODAY...ALLOWING THE FORMATION OF A LOW
PRES AREA N OF PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
SHOWING THIS FEATURE...AND INDICATE IT WILL TRAVEL NW INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MID WEEK. FARTHER E...A WEAKENING
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH BARBADOS BY LATE TODAY...BUT THEN LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW DUE TO
A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...           
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WNA/MWW3 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 30N THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRES AREA
CENTERED NEAR 30N76W. LIGHT WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS COVER THE
AREA N OF 25N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS FARTHER S. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING S
SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS N OF THE
AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS OR SEAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.