000
AGXX40 KNHC 111751
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND WW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH WED...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. 

VERY WEAK TROUGH REMAINS ALONG BAY OF CAMPECHE WESTERN COASTAL 
WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE DRAGS IT W.  STILL...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CLUSTERED ALONG AND W OF TROUGH MOSTLY 
INLAND MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DIMINISHING.  EXCEPT FOR 
SHORT PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH 
STRONG TSTMS NEAR TROUGH...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS 
2-4 FT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT WEATHER IN REMAINDER BASIN THROUGH 
WED.  GFS ONLY MODEL WITH TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN...ENTERING EASTERN GULF LATE FRI AND INTENSIFYING.
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREE. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND WW3 WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO 
VARIANCE IN MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TROPICAL WAVE.

HIGH PRES JUST N OF REGION PROVIDES FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WITH 
SEAS TO 8 FT JUST S OF HISPANIOLA.  WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME A 
MODERATE E BREEZE WITH SEAS 5-6 FT LATE MON AND TUE AS SURFACE 
RIDGE OVER ATLC DRIFT S AND WEAKENS.  VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 64W MOVE W THROUGH WED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED WIND 
OR SEA HEIGHT IMPACT...BUT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. 
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE MON...BUT 
MAY LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE AS RIDGE DRIFTS S FLATTENING ITS CREST 
AND IT ENTERS A DRY AREA IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED...POSSIBLY 
DISSIPATING OR LOSING ITS IDENTITY. 
 
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH TROPICAL WAVES 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WED.   

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...           
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND WW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS. 

ATLC STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB HAS RIDGE EXTEND E-W 
ALONG 28N-30N PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS 
BASIN EXCEPT FRESH BREEZE AND SEAS TO 8 FT NOTED ALONG N COAST 
OF HISPANIOLA. RIDGE WEAKENS WED AND THU DIMINISHING AND VEERING 
SE WINDS W OF 72W.  SEAS SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY TO 5-6 FT.  GLOBAL 
MODELS GUIDANCE MAINTAIN CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THOUGH FRI. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.