000
AGXX40 KNHC 101732
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND WW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS. 

WEAK LOW PRES 1011 MB AT 23N96W AND ATTENDANT TROUGH ALONG 96W
BOTH DRIFT W THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG
AND W OF TROUGH MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE AT 24N90W INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W
-90W WITH REGION OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ENHANCING BURST OF
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 27N E OF 86W. CYCLONE
MAY MOVE W FASTER THAN TROPICAL WAVE AND BECOME OUT OF PHASE BY
TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING.  EXCEPT FOR SHORT PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TSTMS...A
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE AND SEAS 2-4 FT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT
WEATHER IN ENTIRE BASIN.  MODEL GUIDANCE DO NOT ENVISION ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING GULF DOMAIN. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND WW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS. 

FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT JUST S OF HISPANIOLA
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MODERATE E BREEZE WITH SEAS 5-6 FT BY MON
AS SURFACE RIDGE OVER ATLC DRIFT S AND WEAKENS.  VERY WEAK 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W MOVE W THROUGH WED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SUSTAINED WIND OR SEA HEIGHT IMPACT...BUT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MODERATE CONVECTION WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS.  SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATE MON...BUT MAY LOSE SOME AMPLITUDE AS RIDGE DRIFTS S 
FLATTENING ITS CREST AS IT ENTERS CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...
MAKING IT HARD TO IDENTIFY THEN.  MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE
WEAKNESS OF BOTH TROPICAL WAVES WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THU.   

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...           
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND WW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS. 

ATLC HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB HAS RIDGE EXTEND E-W ALONG 30N
PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS BASIN EXCEPT 
FRESH BREEZE AND SEAS TO 8 FT NOTED ALONG N COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
RIDGE WEAKENS AND DRIFT SE TO ALONG 28N WED AND THU DIMINISHING
AND VEERING WINDS. SEAS SUBSIDE ACCORDINGLY TO 5-6 FT.
GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE MAINTAIN CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THOUGH THU. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES.  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.