000
AGXX40 KNHC 100723
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
323 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 94W/95W CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SLOWING AND AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES W...INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE S
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N87W...ALSO MOVING W ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL COME INTO PHASE WITH THE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE BOTH DAMPEN OUT OVER MEXICO SUN. CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT
ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EASTERN
ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...MAINTAINING LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

A SHIP OBSERVATION ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW WINDS REACHING 20 TO 25 KT S OF
HISPANIOLA DUE IN PART TO WEAK TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
BERMUDA. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COAST...MAINLY OFF HAITI...WITH SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE MON...AND
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TUE AND WED. RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALLOW
TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND COLOMBIA
BY WED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...           
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/WW3 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ALONG 31N TO NE FLORIDA. LIGHT 
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA N OF 22N. BUOY AND
ALTIMETER DATA ALONG WITH A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS TO
20 KT S OF 22N WITH SEAS TO 7 FT OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TCI.
CONVECTION THAT HAD BE FLARING YESTERDAY OVER THE CAY SAL
AREA...ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT HAS NOW PASSED W OF THE
REGION. GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING S TO 28N BY MID WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CAROLINA COAST AND STALLS N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL COINCIDEWITH
THE MOVEMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO EVENTS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES S OF
22N.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.