000 AGXX40 KNHC 050643 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 AM EDT MON AUG 5 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3 THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS COAST. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27N91W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN... EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT IN THE N CENTRAL AND E GULF...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MIGRATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE W ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...REACHING ALONG 87W BY THU MORNING...ALONG 91W FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS BY SAT MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT IS QUITE SIMILAR BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS...OTHER THAN A LIGHT WIND SHIFT AND PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...LITTLE IMPACT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS SEEN BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. GENERALLY MODERATE FLOW PERSISTS ELSEWHERE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PUSH OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE U.S. EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. TOGETHER...THESE FEATURES WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND THUS ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR WITHIN 150 NM S OF HISPANIOLA. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED IN THE ATLC WELL NE-E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 34N35W. A RIDGE EXTENDING SW-W TOWARD THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS WEAKENED DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR 33N73W TO SAVANNAH GEORGIA AS CAPTURED BY A 0410 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER IN CONVECTION WHICH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO 29N77W BACK TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND WEAKEN BY TUE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE FRONT PUSHING TO THE W INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A SURFACE TROUGH WED. IN THE MEANTIME... ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE E... REACHING 70W BY THU MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO THE W TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ATLC RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH INCREASING WINDS TO MODERATE AND LOCALLY FRESH ACROSS THE BASIN (EXCEPT THE FAR NE CORNER WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE) FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.