000
AGXX40 KNHC 040614
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
214 AM EDT SUN AUG 4 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W.
LATEST REMOTE SENSED AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND E GULF...WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS IN THE W GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF
WATERS...WITH 2-4 FT ACROSS THE W GULF WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN AND SENSIBLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY WED INTO THU...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
TO MOVE FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS.
IF SO...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

RIDGING OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS OF
8-12 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. 
GENERALLY MODERATE FLOW PERSISTS ELSEWHERE WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS.
THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION THROUGH MID WEEK AS A
TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PUSH OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE U.S. EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. TOGETHER...THESE
FEATURES WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND
THUS ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
AND THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.

THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF DORIAN ARE N OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS STRATTLES THE 31N BORDER
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...WITH PRESUMED 8 FT SEAS N OF 30N STILL IN
OUR AREA. THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS IN THE VICINITY DIMINISH. 

OTHERWISE...1023 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED IN THE N CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 29N64W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SW-W TO SE FLORIDA. LIGHT
WINDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RIDGE...WITH MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT S OF 22N WHERE A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH
TO EVEN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA. THIS ATLC RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOW N OF 22N...AND FRESH FLOW S OF 22N. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT S TO 26N EARLY NEXT WEEK...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL TROUGH
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BREACH S OF 31N MON...STALLING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 28N80W BY TUE
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THIS TROUGH AROUND LATE TUE INTO
WED...PUSHING W ACROSS FLORIDA BY LATE WED. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MIGRATE W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC WED...
REACHING 70W BY THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.