000 AGXX40 KNHC 030849 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 449 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013 UPDATED FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT AVAILABLE). A BROAD AND WEAK PRES PATTERN IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW 1-3 FT SEAS BASINWIDE. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF ALONG ROUGHLY 27N LATER TODAY...SHIFTING S TO 26N SUN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DIGS INTO THE SE UNITED STATES WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE N OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT AVAILABLE). HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WHILE LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD ENHANCING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AS INDICATED BY ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 8-12 FT ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WERE ALSO CAPTURED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ALTHOUGH THESE SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING. THIS PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING AND A STRAY GALE FORCE WIND OR TWO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH WITH FRESH TO STRONG BECOMING CONFINED TO THE S CENTRAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS EVEN MORE TUE THROUGH WED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS DOMINATING THE BASIN...EXCEPT LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NEAR COLOMBIA. ALSO...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC S OF 20N ALONG 30W IS FORECAST TO MORPH INTO MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH LIKE FEATURE RATHER THAN A WAVE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN E CARIBBEAN WED WITH MAINLY JUST A BRIEF WIND SHIFT WITH ITS PASSAGE. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. TCMAT4 RUN WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. WW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT AVAILABLE). TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN NEAR 28.7N 79.2W 1013 MB AT 5 AM EDT MOVING N AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 45 KT. DORIAN WILL MOVE TO 29.9N 78.4W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN N OF THE AREA TO 31.4N 76.0W TONIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING DEPRESSION STRENGTH...AND THUS NO WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 29.5N55.5W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE W ALONG 30N/29N. LIGHT SE-S WINDS ARE IN THE NE CORNER OF THE BASIN CLOSEST TO THE HIGH ...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE. THIS ATLC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW N OF 22N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO 26N EARLY NEXT WEEK...AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONTAL TROUGH BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BREACH S OF 31N MON...STALLING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 28N80W BY TUE MORNING ...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH WED. S OF 22N...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE. THESE ENHANCED TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SAME WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MIGRATE W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N TUE INTO WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.