000 AGXX40 KNHC 021755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK PRES PATTERN ALONG WITH LIMITED WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...WEAK TROUGHING IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE GULF WATERS AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE SAT. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE W AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF ALONG ROUGHLY 27N SAT THEN SHIFT S TO 26N SUN AS A SECOND FRONT DIGS INTO THE SE UNITED STATES WHICH WILL ALSO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE N OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST EXCEPT FOR GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND OVER S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND FAR SW CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS USUAL. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT N OF 20N...AND MAINLY 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE... EXCEPT 8-9 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR COLOMBIA. THE RIDGING N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE EXPANSION IN COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REACHING WESTWARD TO 81W...WITH EVEN NEAR GALE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NOTE THAT WITH THE PERSISTENT STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADES SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12-13 FT IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. BY MON INTO TUE...THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE SE U.S. COAST CAUSING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO BECOME CONFINED TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A TROUGH NOW EMERGING OUT OF THE NE ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS S OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH MON...AND APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE MON...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MUCH WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUE INTO WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM...THEN HIGH. HAND EDITS MADE FOR REMNANTS OF DORIAN. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW IS FORMING FROM THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN BETWEEN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND CAPE CANAVERAL NEAR 28N80W. CONVECTION IS FLARING S OF THE LOW PRES AREA OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE GFS...ECMWF AND CMC...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET...SHOW A WEAK LOW FORMING IN THIS AREA TODAY...AND LIFTING NE AHEAD OF A MID LATITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. WHILE NONE OF THESE MODELS DEEPENS THE LOW APPRECIABLY...GIVEN ITS POSITION OVER THE GULF STREAM THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE LOW PRES THAN IN MODEL OUTPUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. AT ANY RATE...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS NEAR 30N77W...AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A STALLING AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. ELSEWHERE ATLC RIDGE ALONG 27N/28N WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW N OF 22N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO 26N EARLY NEXT WEEK...AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ALONG ROUGHLY 30N. A TROUGH WILL S OF THE RIDGE FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 22N IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE. THE ENHANCED TRADES WILL PERSIST S OF 22N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N TUE INTO WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN/LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.