000 AGXX40 KNHC 011812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 212 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND GFS WITH GRIDS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE N PART OF THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE N HALF OF THE GULF WATERS AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVAILING SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THE WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THESE RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND GFS WITH GRIDS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. TROUGHING OVER THE SW WATERS IS LIMITING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVERING ONLY A SMALL AREA OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 8 FT RANGE IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST TRADES AND 5-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE...3-5 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY THIS WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN ARE FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MOVING NW TO N OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN N TO NE AFTERWARDS AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BY THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH WINDS LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE STRONGER TRADES WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PERSISTENT STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADES...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT BY SATURDAY IN THIS REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND GFS WITH GRIDS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IN REGARDS TO THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...THEN GOOD CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...OVER THE SW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...4-5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...AND 1-3 FT WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS INCREASED TODAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANGE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN TO TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MOVING NW TO N OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN N TO NE AFTERWARDS AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BY THIS WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.