000
AGXX40 KNHC 311816
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE...EXPECT GENTLE TO
MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUN WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS EXCEPT W OF 95W AND SW GULF WHERE SEAS
MAY REACH 3-4 FT AT TIMES. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 20 KT
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AND SUN EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING ZONE GMZ021.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT HIGH PRES RIDGE IN WEST-CENTRAL ATLC AND STATIONARY 
LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS REGION THROUGH SUN WITH FRESH E WINDS CONTINUING 
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL 
DEVELOP FRI NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE 
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-12 FT
ACROSS ZONE AMZ031 SAT AND SUN. WITH HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN NEAR 30N55W THU THROUGH SAT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7
FT FRI AND SAT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM STRONGER NE TRADES IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 10N AND 20N.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE WINDS N OF 27N AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 27N...EXCEPT S OF 22N WHERE WINDS OF
15-20 KT CAN BE FOUND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE
BAHAMAS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITHIN THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS S
OF 22N.

CURRENTLY...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SE BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE
REMNANTS OF DORIAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.
AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.