000
AGXX40 KNHC 251830
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

RIDGE ALONG 26N BLOCK SOUTHWARD INTRUSION OF WEAK COLD FRONT
WHICH REACHES N GULF COAST TONIGHT AND STALLS...THEN LIFT NE SAT.
LIGHT WINDS E-SE BREEZE EXPECTED S OF 26N WITH FRESH S RETURN FLOW
ALONG COAST OF TEXAS AND A GENTLE W N OF 26N...EXCEPT ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE FELT. MOST GUIDANCE
AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT
REMAIN MOSTLY 3 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE THROUGH PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHT AND WAVE PERIOD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W MOVE W OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
ATLC HIGH PRES N OF AREA EXTENDS INTO CARIBBEAN BEHIND TROPICAL
WAVE ALLOWING STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED BY 1007 MB LOW
PRES. RIDGE N OF AREA WEAKENS AS T.S DORIAN TRACKS UNDER ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOWS WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN OVER CENTRAL ATLC APPROACHES NE CARIBBEAN
LATE SUN/EARLY MON. SEAS OVER 12 FT LIKELY SEEP THROUGH ANEGADA
AND OTHER ATLC PASSAGES.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND STALLS
TONIGHT THEN LIFT NE SAT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N
THROUGH SUN. ATLC TROPICAL STORM DORIAN EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW
REACHING NE OF LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SAT THROUGH SUN AND N OF
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE MON. STATIONARY RIDGE
EXTENDING ALONG 26N THROUGH NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALLOWS MODERATE TO
FRESH SW WINDS N OF 29N W OF 72W ALONG WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT. RIDGE RETREATS N
AS TROPICAL STORM DORIAN APPROACHES THROUGH CENTRAL ATLC. DORIAN
EXPECTED TO AFFECT FORECAST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES
NE OF NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN N OF VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TOWARD SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS MON AND
TUE. PLEASE SEE THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.