000
AGXX40 KNHC 250756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

A RIDGE FROM SW FLORIDA TO TEXAS WILL SHIFT S TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH STATES. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE N GULF COAST
FRI...THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA SAT. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND FRI BETWEEN THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND THE RIDGE...AND OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL SET UP EACH NIGHT DUE
TO LOCAL EFFECTS. SEAS WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT OVERALL. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY OVER THE NE COASTAL WATERS RELATED TO
THE APPROACHING FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. 
NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHT AND WAVE PERIOD.

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING INCREASING DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY AND MAY BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY OR FRI. ATLC HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA IS BUILDING BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...ALLOWING STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NWPS
WAVE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASED ON FORECAST WINDS...INITIALIZED
WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT NEAR 12N75W. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE FETCH AND DURATION OF THE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS NOTED THROUGH THAT
AREA. THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL
WEAKEN AHEAD OF T.S DORIAN MOVING ACROSS THE ATLC AND EXPECTED TO
PUSH N OF THE CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEAKENING RIDGE
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AS LOW 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE...AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

T.S. DORIAN IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS FORECAST TO
MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM OF THE NE
OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. SEAS OF
8 TO 12 FT ARE LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARDS AND ADJACENT
WATERS AT THAT TIME.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE UNITED STATES AND INTO THE
WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING INTO SAT THEN
LIFTING N AGAIN BY LATE SAT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AGAINST A
QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 26N64W THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IS ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS N OF 29N W OF
75W AS NOTED ON A 0230 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO NOTED NEAR 27N77W ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD N SLIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFT N SAT...AND AHEAD
OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN APPROACHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC.
DORIAN IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH WITHIN
90 TO 120 NM OF THE NE OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE
SUN/EARLY MON...THEN N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS MON AND TUE. PLEASE
SEE THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON.
AMZ127...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT THROUGH MON.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.