000
AGXX40 KNHC 230720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
NWPS USED TO POPULATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND WAVE PERIOD.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NE TX COAST WILL SHIFT 
S TO A POSITION FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST BY TUE NIGHT...
THEN CHANGE LITTLE EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT HIGH PRES CENTERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND N OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS E OF THE INTERMITTENT HIGH CENTERS.
THE E-SE RETURN FLOW S OF THE RIDGE IS AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS
3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR THE LOCALLY ENHANCED INCREASE IN WINDS OFF
THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING. GUIDANCE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
NWPS USED TO POPULATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND WAVE PERIOD OVER CARIBBEAN
BASIN.

A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING...BREAKING UP THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND
SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY 20 KT...DOWN
FROM THE 25 TO 30 KT THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. SEAS AT BUOY 42058 BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA WERE AROUND
9 FT...IN E SWELL. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY BY
LATE TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO EASTERN
CUBA...THEN DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT WEAKEN
FURTHER...BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK BY MID WEEK OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL BUILD BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA STARTING TONIGHT. BY LATE WED MUCH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA WILL SEE E WINDS OF 25 TO 30
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 12 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI. 

IN THE EASTERN ATLC...WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED S OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THEN LESS
FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE WNW PASSING TO THE NE
OF THE LEEWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE AXIS SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W
LATE FRI NIGHT. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN TO
DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NWPS USED TO POPULATE WAVE HEIGHT AND WAVE PERIOD.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO THE FL COAST AT 27N WILL SHIFT 
FURTHER S ALONG THE FL COAST TONIGHT THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IS GENERALLY 
AT 10-15 KT BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND 
SUPPORTS ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS AGAIN. E WINDS AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 3-5 
FT ARE EXPECTED S OF 23N TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.