000
AGXX40 KNHC 221759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
159 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
NWPS USED TO POPULATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND WAVE PERIOD.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NE TX COAST WILL SHIFT 
S TO A POSITION FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST BY TUE NIGHT...
THEN CHANGE LITTLE EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT HIGH PRES CENTERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND N OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS E OF THE INTERMITTENT HIGH CENTERS.
THE E-SE RETURN FLOW S OF THE RIDGE IS AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS
3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR THE LOCALLY ENHANCED INCREASE IN WINDS OFF
THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING. GUIDANCE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
NWPS USED TO POPULATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND WAVE PERIOD OVER CARIBBEAN
BASIN.

ATLC HIGH PRES IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN THE
TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS RELAXING TO 20-25 KT
WITH SEAS DIMINISHING TO 7-11 FT TODAY...WITH THE AFFECTED AREA
SHRINKING TO JUST S OF 14N BETWEEN 74-77W ON TUE. GUIDANCE HAS 
REVERSED AND NOW TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT BRIEFLY NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN THAT WILL REACH ALONG 74W ON
WED. SO INTRODUCED AN AREA OF E WINDS AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 70-76W LATE TUE WITH THIS AREA 
SPREADING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 11-15N BETWEEN
72-78W ON WED. THIS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 11-17N BETWEEN 70-83W LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH PULSES TO 
25-30 KT WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.    

WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N18W 
AT 15Z. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THEN LESS FAVORABLE AS 
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE WNW PASSING TO THE NE OF THE 
LEEWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE AXIS SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W LATE 
FRI NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO THE FL COAST AT 27N WILL SHIFT 
FURTHER S ALONG THE FL COAST TONIGHT THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IS GENERALLY 
AT 10-15 KT BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND 
SUPPORTS ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS AGAIN. E WINDS AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 3-5 
FT ARE EXPECTED S OF 23N TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.