000 AGXX40 KNHC 220745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS/PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS FLARING THE PREVIOUS EVENING OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF THE GULF HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. DRIER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF FROM THE SE. A RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W ALONG ROUGHLY 27N FROM TAMPA TO BROWNSVILLE IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH OCCASIONAL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE MAIN AREAS FOR THE HIGHER 20 KT FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AROUND THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OFF THE TEXAS COAST IN RETURN FLOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF STARTING TUE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS W. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS/PERIOD OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN. QUASI-STATIONARY ATLC HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MAINLY THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE EASTERN GULF DRIVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TUE. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OFF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT STARTING LATE WED...REACHING 30 KT BY LATE THU WITH SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR 12N77.5W BY LATE FRI AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE N. A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS PAST EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING BELOW 20 KT AS THE OVERALL PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. SIMILARLY...A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE WINDS USUALLY PEAK AT NIGHT...AND EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY...PEAKING AGAIN TONIGHT...TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT BUT ONLY TO 20 KT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS. WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE THU AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 29N67W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE PASSING TO THE S OF BERMUDA ON MON...THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL SE FL BY MID WEEK. SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IS AT 10-15 KT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG 31N THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH ON TUE SUPPORTING S-SW 15-20 KT EVERYWHERE TO THE N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THU. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME BY THU NIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT STALLS OVER LAND W OF THE AREA. E WINDS AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED S OF 23N TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT E AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 4-6 FT NEAR ATLC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH TODAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.