000 AGXX40 KNHC 201948 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 UPDATED TO ADD GALE WARNING IN CARIBBEAN SEA MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA BETWEEN UPPER ANTICYCLONES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND OVER SOUTHERN FL. THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CYCLONE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY NOW FLARING ALONG 2 LINES TO THE N OF 23N BETWEEN 88W-95W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDING NE- SW FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO 25N93W HAS SLOWED ITS NW PROGRESSION...AND WILL LIKELY FILL BEFORE ITS SOUTHERN PORTION REACHES THE NW COASTAL PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS TO THE N OF 25N W OF THE TROUGH ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE S-SW WINDS ARE AT 10-15 KT N OF 25N E OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES A E-W RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG 27N-28N FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND THROUGH MON...THEN THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST THROUGH EARLY THU. SE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MIDDAY MON SUPPORTING E-SE WINDS AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SO BLENDING LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS WHICH IS BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN. UPDATED...RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT...ASCAT-B...AND OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALL SHOWED NUMEROUS 30-34 KT WIND BARBS WITH A COUPLE 34 KT+ BARBS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W AS ATLC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA HAS MOVED SW CLOSER TO THE BASIN...AND WITH LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE S CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THUS A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT INTO SUN AFTERNOON FOR AMZ031. PREVIOUS...QUASI-STATIONARY ATLC HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH PULSES TO 30 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS HAVE REACHED 13 FT AS EXPECTED NEAR 13N76W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED S OF 15N W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN INCREASING THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO 20- 25 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE AREA ALONG 45W AND SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W ON SUN...ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE W REINFORCING THE E TRADES AT 15-20 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ACROSS THE TROPICS...EXCEPT THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER IS SOME AREAS...SO BLENDED LATEST GFS IN PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS THAT IS A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING TROUGH...WILL MOVE WNW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS CHANNEL AND FL STRAITS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FURTHER W OVER S FL SO CONVECTION SHOULD OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY TONIGHT. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS STATIONARY AT 28N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE PASSING TO THE S OF BERMUDA ON MON...THEN SHIFT NE OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO CENTRAL FL BY MID WEEK. SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IS AT 10-15 KT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG 31N THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE SUPPORTING S-SW 15-20 KT EVERYWHERE N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. E WINDS AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-6 FT ARE EXPECTED S OF 23N...EXCEPT E AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 4-8 FT NEAR ATLC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH SUN. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON/LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.