000 AGXX40 KNHC 101841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT FOR 1-2 FT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS LATE FRIDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SUN AND MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO CHANTAL IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. STRUGGLING TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANTAL IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ABOUT 225 NM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW AND PASS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA THIS EVENING THEN REACH CUBA ON THU AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN N OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER BEING TRACKED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE GALE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IN LIEU OF T.S. WARNINGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD AFTER DISCONTINUATION OF ADVISORIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE DETAILS ON THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-11 FT RANGE IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 7-10 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH INTENSITY/TRACK FORECAST FOR CHANTAL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ALONG 31N. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY S OF 22N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS LOCALLY TIGHTEST. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS S OF 26N AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 26N. SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE WITH SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS CHAIN AND N OF 23N WHILE SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 23N. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF CHANTAL. THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NW TO NNW ACROSS CUBA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE LATE THU THROUGH SAT TIMEFRAME. COORDINATED WITH WFO MIA AND MLB IN DEPICTING A SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE THOSE TIME PERIODS. DUE TO A WEAKER FORECAST SCENARIO...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NHC/TAFB AND THE COASTAL WFOS HAVE LESSENED CONSIDERABLY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE DETAILS ON THE FORECAST INTENSITY AND TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. AMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.