000
AGXX40 KNHC 100641
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY
DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE
IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT
FOR 1-2 FT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING. THIS WILL ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS LATE FRIDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS ON SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO CHANTAL IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. 

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANTAL IS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ABOUT 180 NM S OF PUERTO RICO AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW REACHING HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN N OF THE CENTER WITH THE SYSTEM. THE
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE REGARDING ITS
INTENSITY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE DETAILS.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY
DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 10-12 FT RANGE IN THE REGION OF
STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 7-10 FT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 3-5
FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 6-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THROUGH
THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH INTENSITY/TRACK
FORECAST FOR CHANTAL.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ALONG 31N. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY S OF 22N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS LOCALLY
TIGHTEST. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS S OF 26N AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 26N. SEAS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS
CHAIN AND N OF 23N WHILE SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL W OF
THE BAHAMAS S OF 23N. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE DETAILS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ025...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ125...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.