000
AGXX40 KNHC 091838
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. SEAS IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE PREVAILS EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF WHERE SEAS ARE IN
THE 1-2 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL THEN RETREAT WESTWARD ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI. THE
FRONT STALLS IN PLACE SAT AND DISSIPATES SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND
INCORPORATING TCM WINDS FOR CHANTAL.

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CHANTAL CURRENTLY 
CENTERED ABOUT 3OO NM SE OF SAN JUAN WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT
GUSTING TO 65 KT. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WNW...AND
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A TRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOWARD HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND
APPROACHES LANDFALL EARLY WED. CHANTAL IS THEN FORECAST TO ENTER
THE SW N ATLC WATERS THU WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. MORE NORMAL TRADES RESUME FRI THROUGH SUN.

OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WESTWARD TONIGHT...AND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA AND BECOME
DIFFUSE WED. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 10 FT.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH 3-5 FT SEAS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THROUGH
EARLY PART OF FORECAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH INTENSITY/TRACK
FORECAST FOR CHANTAL AT END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRACTURE OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVAILS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS.THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND WEAKEN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS WEST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BY WED. ON THU THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE
EAST. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS CHANTAL ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY NW ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH SUN.

COORDINATED WITH WFO MLB AND MIA IN TRIMMING THE TCM WINDS AWAY
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS OF
CHANTAL TO BLEND IN WITH THEIR FORECASTS. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH WED.
AMZ025...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY 
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE. 
AMZ031...NONE. 
AMZ033...NONE. 
AMZ035...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. 
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE NIGHT AND WED.
AMZ125...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.