000 AGXX40 KNHC 090703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF WATERS WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE PREVAILS EXCEPT OVER THE NE GULF WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TODAY WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN RETREAT WESTWARD ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF LATE FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CHANTAL IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY THIS TUE MORNING WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT. THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WNW...AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER HISPANIOLA WEDNESDAY EVENING. CHANTAL IS THEN FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS THURSDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TODAY...AND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA AND BECOME DIFFUSE WED. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH 3-5 FT SEAS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY PART OF FORECAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH INTENSITY/TRACK FORECAST FOR CHANTAL AT END OF FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRACTURE OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 3-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS WEST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BY WED WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL UNTIL IT RETREATS EASTWARD BY THU. THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. THE CURRENT TRACK OF CHANTAL HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH SAT AS IT MOVES NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. AMZ025...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. AMZ035...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. AMZ037...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.