000
AGXX40 KNHC 081910
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS NORTHERN GULF WATERS
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN
THROUGH WED. BY THEN A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER 1019 MB FORMS OVER
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AS T.S. CHANTAL HEADS N ALONG E COAST OF
FLORIDA SPLITTING RIDGE INTO TWO ANTICYCLONIC CENTERS. NEW HIGH
PRES PROMPTS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS BELOW 4 FT THROUGH
SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CHANTAL TRACK WELL
HANDLED BY MODEL.

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL BECOMES MAIN CENTER OF ATTRACTION FOR
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC ZONES. NHC TRACK FOLLOWS
MAINLY GFS TRACK ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE WELL STACKED
TOGETHER THROUGH 120 HRS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY THROUGH
WED AS IT MOVES S OF PUERTO RICO. CHANTAL CUTS THROUGH N HALF OF
TROPICAL ATLC AND NE QUARTER OF CARIBBEAN CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND
SE CUBA LATE THU AND FRI AS TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASE AND LAND EFFECTS TAKE
THEIR TOLL IN CYCLONE.

OTHERWISE...TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY THEN MOVE WEST OF THE AREA WED. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS
WITH SEAS TO 11 FT FLOW ACROSS CARIBBEAN UNTIL INTERRUPTED IN THE
EASTERN THIRD OF BASIN BY CHANTAL. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AFFECTED IN N
CORNER AND ATLC PASSAGES BUT SOUTHERN PART AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
REMAIN UNSCATHED.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH CHANTAL
TRACK WELL HANDLED BY MODEL.

HIGH PRES ALONG 33N TODAY THROUGH WED FORCED E AS CHANTAL
ENCROACHES INTO SW PORTION OF BASIN AND CROSSES THE BAHAMA BANK. 
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ON AREAS NOT YET
AFFECTED BY CHANTAL. THEREAFTER...QUICK DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS AS WIND AND SEAS SEEP THROUGH PASSAGES INTO BASIN E
OF BAHAMAS. CURRENT TRACK OF CHANTAL BRINGS IT OVER EASTERN CUBA
LATE THU AND FRI AND INTO SW PORTION OF BASIN THEN CHANTAL
WEAKENS BY FRI NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS WESTERN BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ025...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ027...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ037...TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.