000
AGXX40 KNHC 080618
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
218 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SE
GULF...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE
IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 2-4 FT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK MAINTAINING RELATIVELY
BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

THE MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS IS
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. AT 0300 UTC...CHANTAL WAS
CENTERED NEAR 9.8N 47.2W. WINDS WERE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
WITH MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. CHANTAL WAS
MOVING TO THE WEST QUICKLY AT 23 KT. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY
AND MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT...THEN ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY TUE MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
50 KT GUSTING TO 60 KT...THEN MOVE WNW ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS REACHING HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE SW N ATLC WATERS THU NIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND 4-6 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
SEAS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY
THEN MOVE WEST OF THE AREA WED.  

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. LATEST SATELLITE...SHIP...
AND BUOY DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-6 FT
RANGE WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...MOVING W OF THE AREA TUE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS CHANTAL MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA
THURSDAY INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT. THE
CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANTAL WEAKENING TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ037...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.