000 AGXX40 KNHC 050759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 359 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO THE BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER OF THE LOOP CURRENT IS PLAYING A ROLE. MUCH OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION WAS CONCENTRATED IN THE FAR NE GULF DUE FRESH TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUOYS OVER THE NE GULF WERE REPORTING SEAS TO 10 FT EARLIER IN AN AREA OF CONVECTION. THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE STARTING TO LESSEN AS THE GRADIENT OPENS. A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE WESTERN GULFALONG 94W. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS INDICATED A WEAK LOW PRES AREA FORMED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW GULF...BUT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE OPENED UP. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATED THAT THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS INTO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THERE REMAIN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN THE SE TO S FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN GULF. OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS A GENERAL BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCEMENTS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WITH A NOD TO THE GFS. SIMILARLY...SEAS FORECAST REFLECTS WW3 SOLUTION WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO 6 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY SAT AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECTED SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO REACH UP 10 FT...AT TIMES...THROUGH SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AND BUILDING BACK UP TO 10 FT LATE MON INTO TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN...THEN IT APPEARS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AT THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES FURTHER W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON. CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT WILL KEEP TRADES AT AROUND 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE REMNANT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW BAHAMAS IS BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 36N68W AND A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. THIS FEATURE IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH STRONG GUSTS AT TIMES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR 32N67W. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN ARE MAINTAINING FRESH TO AT TIMES STRONG TRADES MAINLY S OF 22N...WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 8 FT PER BUOYS IN THE VICINITY. THE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE REACHING AS FAR W AS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TCI. N OF 22N...WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF AS YOU GO NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARD TO WINDS AND SEAS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SITUATED NEAR 22N58W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK DUE WEST ALONG 22N/23N THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BRING A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 26N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...REACHING THE BAHAMAS MON INTO TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.