000 AGXX40 KNHC 031859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 PM EDT WED JUL 3 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH LOW TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE REMAINDER PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHOW WELL IN BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS. IT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW AT 28N93W AND TO 25N93W...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH FORMERLY IDENTIFIED AS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GLOBAL MODELS...IN GENERAL.. INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK WNW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW GULF THROUGH THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MODELS IN MOVING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW GULF THROUGH FRI. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SLOWEST WITH SPEED. THE MODELS DO AGREE TO SOME EXTENT THAT WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ON THE TROUGH BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THE NE MEXICO COAST LATE FRI. THE GFS IS FURTHER N WITH THIS LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS...AND TAKES IT NW TO N FRI WHERE IT TRANSITION INTO ANOTHER WEAK LOW IN THE NW GULF. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...THE WEAK 1014 MB LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED WILL LIFT NE TOWARDS THE NE GULF COAST NEAR THE ARE OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA ...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY EARLY THU. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SE-S WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE NE GULF THU WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY LATE THU. YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N92W IN DAY 3 AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PINCHES OF A DEEP LAYER CLOSED LOW THERE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW ACROSS AND INLAND SUN. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ONCE IT FORMS AS IT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND NE TO E WINDS OVER TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS TO 9 OR 10 FT OVERTHE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 14N ALONG 62W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS IN A RATHER DRY AIRMASS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN E OF IT... AND WITHIN 150 NM TO ITS W. HE WAVE WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...AGAIN ASSISTED BY A CUT OFF UPPER LOW TO ITS NW...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SAT AND SUN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON. FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FOLLOW CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES IN HAVING THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS THE TROPICAL WAVES PASS ON TO THE W...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE...SHIP...BUOY DATA AND A MORNING ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE AND S OF 22N WHERE FRESH TRADES ARE SUPPORT 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. THE RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN SUN AND MON. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WED THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESHENED WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT GENERALLY S OF 22N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N72W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE W THROUGH AS IT WEAKENS TO A SHARP TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND MIGRATE W ALONG 23N/24 FROM 55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI THOUGH SUN...POSSIBLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG ITS PATH. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.