000 AGXX40 KNHC 030758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 358 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM YUCATAN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED IN BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SCATTEROMETER DATA...EXTENDING FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO 24N93W. THIS HAD BEEN A STATIONARY FRONT EARLIER YESTERDAY AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...THE RESULT OF DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF...AND IS LOSING ITS DEFINITION AS A DISTINCT FEATURE AS IT COMES INTO PHASE WITH THE NOCTURNAL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN AND STARTS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. A MERGED TROUGH WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN COAST THROUGH FRI. MODELS ADVERTISE WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW GULF...BUT NOT NECESSARILY DEVELOPING OR EVEN MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AS IT DRIFTS WEST THROUGH FRI. THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER...ALONGSIDE THE CANADIAN...IN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS SHOWING A WEAK LOW OVER THE NE GULF. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF COPIUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FAVORING THE ECMWF IN THIS AREA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW A WEAKER TROUGH TO THE WEST...CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT ANALYSIS...WITH FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IF CONVECTION PROLIFERATES AND THE PRES FALLS. ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERNS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW FORMING OVER THE NW GULF SAT INTO SUN. OPERATIONAL MODELS HINT OF A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF MIGRATING W INTO NE MEXICO. THEY DO NOT REALLY PICK UP ON AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW YET HOWEVER AND ANY LOW TO FORM WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY WEAK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND NE TO E WINDS OVER TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE YESTERDAY STARTED LOSING DEFINITIONAS THE NORTHERN PORTION PASSED THROUGH WESTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N72W...BUT HAS ALSO BEEN IN A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS FOR SOME TIME AND IS NOT WELL DEFINED. THE UPPER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TRAILING TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH THU...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE...AGAIN ASSISTED BY A CUT OFF UPPER LOW TO ITS NW...WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY FRI...MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN. FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATES W...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE AND S OF 22N WHERE FRESH TRADES ARE SUPPORT 5 TO 7 FT SEAS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AND PREVAIL OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WED THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESHENED WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT GENERALLY S OF 22N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N72W WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS W OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT MAY GENERATE A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SHIFT W THROUGH THU. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND MIGRATE W ALONG 23N FROM 55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI THOUGH SUN BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG ITS PATH. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.