000
AGXX40 KNHC 021816
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND EXTENDING ONTO THE GULF WATERS REMAINS THE GOVERNING FEATURE
OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STALLED STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
BROWNSVILLE. LATEST SATELLITE DATA...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF E OF 85W WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND
GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BY WED. SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING
INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND 

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE JUST ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA DEPICT
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE PREVAILING
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS 5-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MERGING INTO BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WED THROUGH SAT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/OFFICIAL BLEND 

ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST
SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE
IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE IN
THE 3-5 FT RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY AND
PREVAIL OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WED THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRESHENED WINDS
ACCOMPANIED BY BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT GENERALLY S OF 22N.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.