000 AGXX40 KNHC 281831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 231 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 25N92W ANCHORS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR NE GULF WHERE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION AND MAINTAINING 10 TO 15 KT WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. MEANWHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK COLD FRONT PENETRATING INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY SUN...REACHING AS FAR AS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTH TEXAS MON...BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE BY MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DRIFT N AGAIN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS BY MID WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING FROM S OF CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND STALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY WITH DEVELOPING WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OPERATION MODELS SHOW WEAK LOW PRES WILL FORMING WHERE THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERSECTS THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT AS A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY STARTING TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND IS PRODUCING LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION E OF TRINIDAD. WHILE THIS WAVE WILL AMPLIFY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN...IT WILL START TO FLATTEN MON AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THIS TREND BUT MORE SO THE GFS. THE WAVE ALMOST LOSES IDENTITY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MID WEEK...BECOMING ABSORBED IN A DEVELOPING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT ANY RATE...TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES FROM RIDGING N OF THE AREA BUILDS BEHIND THE WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WAVE OUT TO THE AREA BY TUE. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 27N...BUT IS POORLY DEFINED. IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME WELL AMPLIFIED AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK W ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 28N. ASCAT DATA FROM 14 UTC INDICATED GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SETTING UP A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41002 NEAR 32N75W INDICATE SW WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW MAINLY N OF 28N W OF 75W BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST S OF 24N AS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N65W...ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N63W TO 29N63W. SEAS AREA GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW OVER AMZ111 AND 113. TRADES S OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.