000
AGXX40 KNHC 280637
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
237 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN CENTERED ON 1016 MB HIGH
PRES NEAR 27N87W PER A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS...WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TAIL END OF A VERY
SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...REACHING IT SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 10-20 KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE N CENTRAL AND FAR NE GULF WATERS...WITH
RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 3-6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LOWER
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS WHILE BECOMING STALLED OUT IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS MON
THROUGH TUE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT W ATLC RIDGE REMAINS N OF THE BASIN. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING S TO HONDURAS HAS
BECOME DIFFUSE AND ILL-DEFINED. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WHILE A
RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED 7-9 FT SEAS BETWEEN 67W-69W. THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...
THEN THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA BY EARLY MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...CURRENTLY S OF 16N ALONG 52W. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER...ALTIMETER...AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS NOW INDICATE
THAT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 6-7 FT NEAR THE WAVE. THIS
WAVE WILL REACH TO ALONG 60W BY SAT MORNING...THEN INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN...AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE.

ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE
PROGRESSES WESTWARD WHILE THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA RETREATS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ALLOWING TO THE PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. THE
RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK W ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 1022 MB HIGH
PRES CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N61W PER A RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO N FLORIDA
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND TRADES
15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT S OF 22N E OF 75W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF
22N ALONG 76W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW
FROM HISPANIOLA TOWARD CUBA TODAY.

ALSO...FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE MEASURED BY A RECENT
ASCAT PASS IN THE FAR NW CORNER NEAR THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA
COASTS BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE MENTIONED
RIDGING. THE RIDGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING MOVING OFF OF CAROLINAS COAST WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS MAINLY N OF 29N/30N FOR
ZONES AMZ111-113 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD
WESTWARD ON TUE ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE
IN THE NW PORTION.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.