000 AGXX40 KNHC 271846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS BASIN CENTERED ON 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26.5N91W PER R3ECENT ASCAT PASS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 1-3 FT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FRI THROUGH WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER A WEAK HIGH DEVELOPS WITHIN RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FRI. TAIL END OF WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SAT...WITH WINDS INCREASING AND SHIFTING W-SW NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS...EXPECTED TO RELOCATE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG 24N. SEAS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 5-7 FT ACROSS FAR NE GULF BY SUN MORNING AS SW FLOW INCREASES SAT NIGHT TO 20-25 THEN ABATES SUN AFTERNOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF FOR WINDS AND WW3/NWPS FOR WAVES WEAK BUT PERSISTENT W ATLC RIDGE ALONG 30N YIELDING WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN WITH SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY OBS SHOWING MODERATE TRADES E OF 80W AND FRESH TRADES S OF 14.5N OFF COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...WHERE MAX SEAS ESTIMATED AT 7-8 FT. BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W STEADY AT 5-6 FT. TWO TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN. A WEAK WAVE ALONG BECOMING ILL- DEFINED AND ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA ATTM WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN BROAD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS FAR EPAC AND C/AM NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WHILE A SECOND WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS ALONG 76W HAS HAS ENTERED STABLE REGION WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED WX ATTM...EXCEPT FOR FAR N PORTION AND TRAILING MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND PUERTO RICO...TRIGGERING SCT CNVTN E THROUGH NE OF WAVE AXIS ACROSS ATLC WATERS. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. THIS SECOND WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE W ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...WITH N PORTION FRACTURING AFTER 24 HOURS AND RIDING S TO SE FLOW ACROSS BAHAMAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. S PORTION THEN TO BECOME NEXT VICTIM OF EAST PAC MONSOON CIRCULATION EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN. TRADES WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BEHIND THIS SECOND WAVE AND AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE APPROACHING BASIN TO RETURN CONDITIONS TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS FRI. HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IN WEST-CENTRAL ATLC MOVING QUICKLY AROUND 20 KT...BEST DEFINED AT H7...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY FRI THE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SAT MORNING. GFS DEPICTING 20-25 KT E TO SE WINDS BEHIND WAVE AXIS S OF 15N...AND AT THIS 20 KT TRANSLATION SPEED CREATES A POSSIBLE TRAPPED FETCH SCENARIO. WAVE MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 7-9 FT BEHIND WAVE BY 48-72 HRS, WHICH APPEARS A REASONABLE SOLUTION. WAVE TO REACH FROM PUERTO RICO TO ARUBA BY 72 HRS THEN ENCOUNTER DEEPENING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB BY DAY 4 AS NORTH PORTION AND MOISTURE ADVECT NW AND S PORTION CONTINUES QUICKLY WWD AT ABOUT 7 DEG PER DAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GEFS WEAK W ATLC RIDGE ALONG 30N CENTERED ON 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N62W PER RECENT ASCAT PASS. RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO N FLORIDA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND TRADES 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT S OF 22N E OF 75W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...RIDGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF CAROLINAS COAST THU NIGHT WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW W OF 77W AS TAIL END OF COLD FRONT APPROACHES 31N W OF 76W SAT AND SUN. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS S OF 22N WILL BE SEEN ACROSS SE PORTIONS BEHIND E CARIB WAVE AND THEN AGAIN AHEAD AND BEHIND NEXT WAVE ENTERING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ011...NONE. GMZ013...NONE. GMZ015...NONE. GMZ017...NONE. GMZ019...NONE. GMZ021...NONE. GMZ023...NONE. GMZ025...NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... AMZ011...NONE. AMZ013...NONE. AMZ015...NONE. AMZ017...NONE. AMZ019...NONE. AMZ021...NONE. AMZ023...NONE. AMZ025...NONE. AMZ027...NONE. AMZ029...NONE. AMZ031...NONE. AMZ033...NONE. AMZ035...NONE. AMZ037...NONE. AMZ039...NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... AMZ111...NONE. AMZ113...NONE. AMZ115...NONE. AMZ117...NONE. AMZ119...NONE. AMZ121...NONE. AMZ123...NONE. AMZ125...NONE. AMZ127...NONE. *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.