000
AGXX40 KNHC 261901
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
301 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS, WW3/NWPS BLEND THROUGH 24
HRS

WEAK E TO W RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS BASIN TODAY ALONG ABOUT 29N
WITH RECENT SCAT PASSES SHOWING MILD WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS
ALL BUT PORTIONS W OF 94.5W AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SEAS MILD AS WELL, WITH PEAK SEAS ALONG TEXAS COAST AT 4-5 FT...
AND DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 5 FT AT 12Z. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK HIGH DEVELOPS WITHIN RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF FRI. TAIL END OF WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SAT...WITH WINDS INCREASING AND SHIFTING W-SW
NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 24N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                    
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS, WW3/NWPS BLEND THROUGH 24
HRS

WEAK BUT PERSISTENT W ATLC RIDGE E TO W ALONG 29N YIELDING WEAK
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN AND MODERATE TRADES E OF 80W AND
FRESH TRADES OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE SEAS MIGHT BE MAXED AT
8 FT. BUOY 42058 IN CENTRAL CARIB AT 5 FT ATTM. 2 TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE BASIN TODAY...ONE WEAK WAVE CROSSING 80W ARE
FAIRLY ILL DEFINED...AND A SECOND REACHING 70W ATTM AND WITH A MOD
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURL AS WAVE AXIS CAUSING ALL WEATHER TO OCCUR
BEHIND WAVE AND BEING STEERED NW ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND INTO
ADJACENT ATLC. TUTT LOW BETWEEN PR AND BERMUDA TO MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR CNVTN TO CONTINUE BEHIND WAVE
ACROSS PR AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING WNW. 
FIRST WAVE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
BECOME ABSORBED BY MONSOONAL CIRCULATION...WHILE SECOND WAVE
EXPECTED TO REACH WINDWARD PASSAGE BY 12Z THU...TO 79/80W 12Z
FRI...THEN N PORTION FRACTURING ACROSS CUBA AND BAHAMAS...LEAVING
WAVE ALONG 82/83W BY 12Z SAT AND S PORTIONS BECOMING ABSORBED IN
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ACROSS SW CARIB. TRADES TO
INCREASE SOMEWHAT BEHIND SECOND WAVE AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS BY FRI BUT WITH PEAK TRADES AND SEAS OFFSHORE OF NE
COLOMBIA...SHIFTING W BEHIND WAVE TO BETWEEN 70W AND 80W SAT. 

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ATTM MOVING
QUICKLY AROUND 20 KT AND BEST DEFINED AT H7...EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY FRI AND ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES SAT MORNING. GFS DEPICTING 20-25 KT E TO SE WINDS BEHIND
WAVE AXIS S OF 15N...AND AT THIS 20 KT TRANSLATION SPEED CREATES A
TRAPPED FETCH SCENARIO. WW3 RESPONDS BY BUILDING SEAS 7-9 FT
BEHIND WAVE BY 48 HRS AND 7-10 FT BY 72 HRS AND HAVE ACCEPTED
THESE VALUES FOR LATEST PKG.


...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

WEAK W ATLC RIDGE ALONG 29-30N EXTENDING INTO N FLORIDA...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS AREA...AND TRADES 15 TO LOCALLY
15-20 KT S OF 23N E OF 74W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH E CARIB
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE WNW ACROSS PR AND NE CARIB AND INTO ATLC
WATERS THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE...RIDGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF CAROLINAS COAST THU NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW W OF 77W AS TAIL END OF COLD
FRONT APPROACHES 31N W OF 76W SAT AND SUN. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS S OF 22N WILL BE SEEN ACROSS SE PORTIONS BEHIND E
CARIB WAVE AND THEN AGAIN AHEAD AND BEHIND NEXT WAVE ENTERING
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.