000
AGXX40 KNHC 250715
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR MARINE WINDS, WW3/NWPS 
BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS.

PERSISTENT BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGE 
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. 
REMNANT MOISTURE OF OLD TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS E GULF WILL SHIFT 
NW AND INLAND TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. 
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR MARINE WINDS, WW3/NWPS 
BLEND FOR SEA HEIGHTS.

ATLC RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 32N EXTENDING W INTO GA WILL VARY ONLY 
SLIGHTLY DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SHIFTING S TO 30N-31N WED 
AND THU. RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT TO THE S WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH HIGHEST WINDS TO 
25 KT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA. WW3 GUIDANCE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH OBS TONIGHT. TUTT LOW OVER BAHAMAS EXTENDING WSW 
INTO NW CARIB WILL BECOME MORE N TO S ALIGNED AND SHIFT SLOWLY 
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS 
ALOFT DEVELOPING IN THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF HISPANIOLA. A PAIR OF 
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THE FIRST ALONG 71W AND 
A MORE ENERGETIC WAVE ALONG 59W...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LEADING WAVE WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED 
BY 24-48 HOURS...WHILE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER 
ANTILLES TODAY THEN MORE W-NW AS IT INTERACTS WITH TUTT LOW.  
PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY IN NE CARIBBEAN NEXT 48 HOURS. 
PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES W-NW...WITH 
WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING OFF TONIGHT AND WED. HIGHEST WINDS AND 
SEAS WED THROUGH THU SHOULD OCCUR N OF 15N WITH AND BEHIND WAVE. 
PRES GRADIENT TO INCREASE WITH MORE TYPICAL TRADES AND SEAS BY 
THU NIGHT AS W SHIFTS TO THE W AND GRADIENT RE-ESTABLISHES.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND

REMARKABLY PERSISTENT BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A 
RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM BERMUDA TO NORTHERN 
FLORIDA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TUTT LOW NEAR BAHAMAS MENTIONED 
ABOVE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH FRI AND INTERACT WITH TROPICAL 
WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 59W AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER E 
OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH WED.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.