000
AGXX40 KNHC 241815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND, WW3/NWPS BLEND

PERSISTENT BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI.
REMNANT MOISTURE OF OLD TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS E GULF WILL SHIFT NW
AND INLAND NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED DURING NEXT 4-5 DAYS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS, WW3/NWPS BLEND

W ATLC RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 32N EXTENDING W INTO GA WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY S TO 30N-31N WED-
THU. RESULTANT PRES GRAD TO THE S YIELDING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH HIGHEST WINDS
AROUND 25 KT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA...PER 14Z ASCAT PASS. WW3
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBS TODAY...EXCEPT ACROSS W
CENTRAL PORTIONS WHERE IT IS TYPICALLY HIGH...AND HAVE BLENDED IN
NWPS THROUGH 24 HOURS TO BRING THIS AREA IN LINE WITH OBS FROM
42057. TUTT LOW ACROSS BAHAMAS EXTENDING SW INTO NW CARIB TO
BECOME MORE N TO S ALIGNED AND SHIFT SLOWLY E NEXT 48 HOURS AND
MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NE CARIB FROM
HISPANIOLA EWD. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...ONE ALONG 69W ATTM...AND A SECOND MORE ENERGETIC WAVE ALONG
56.5W ATTM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. LEADING
WAVE BECOME ILL DEFINED BY 24 HOURS AND HAVE DROPPED FROM
PROGS...WHILE SECOND WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY
TUE THEN MORE W-NW AND INTERACTS WITH TUTT LOW ACROSS NE CARIB FOR
PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT 48 HOURS. PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
AS THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES W-NW AND BEGINS TO MOVE BETWEEN HIGH AND
COLOMBIAN LOW...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING OFF BELOW 25 KT AND 8
FT BY 12Z WED. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WED THROUGH THU TO THEN
GENERALLY OCCUR N OF 15N WITH AND BEHIND WAVE. PRES GRADIENT TO
INCREASE WITH MORE TYPICAL TRADES AND SEAS BY THU NIGHT AS W
SHIFTS TO THE W AND GRADIENT RE-ESTABLISHES.

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...               
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND

REMARKABLY PERSISTENT BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH 
RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM BERMUDA TO 
GA/N FLORIDA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TUTT LOW ACROSS BAHAMAS
TO SHIFT SLOWLY E NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTERACT WITH TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES ATTM AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE EWD THROUGH WED.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...NONE.
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.